Homework Problem 12, Due Wednesday March 5. ------------------------------------------ Consider the not uncommon situation where you may have 25 iid observations X_i , i=1,..,25, which you think are approximately normally distributed, but you are worried that the actual distribution may have heavier tails. A reasonable test statistic to test this is | max_i X_i - min_i X_i | / (*) (sqrt( sum_{i=1}^n (X_i-Xbar)^2 )/24) where Xbar is the sample mean of the 25 observations X_i, and the denominator is the usual sample standard deviation. This statistic is sometimes called a studentized range (but it is not the "Tukey studentized range" arising in Multiple Comparisons Theory and treated in the R function ptukey), and can easily be seen to be invariant under affine changes of variable X_i -> a X_i + b. FIND THE SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL OF THE HYPOTHESIS TEST WHICH REJECTS WHEN THE TEST STATISTIC (*) IS AT LEAST 5. Since this is a relatively rare event and involves a 25-dimensional integral, it is hard to evaluate exactly. So this exercise is to find the probability as accurately as you can by simulation. You can get only a crude evaluation of the probability by doing a direct simulation. So you should try to speed up the simulation to get acceptable accuracy within a feasible sample size. I suggest that you simulate from N(0,1) and EITHER try the method of control variates with control variable .04* sum_i |X_i|^3 (because the exact mean of this variable is easy to find for standard normal, and large values of the variable are associated with large values of the statistic(*)) OR try the method of importance sampling OR BOTH. (For the importance sampling distribution, we want to simulate from a distribution with tails something like the normal but heavier, but which is also easy to simulate. I suggest something like a symmetrized [ie multiplied by + or - 1 with equal probability] r.v. with the distribution of the square root of a Gamma density with shape parameter less than but close to 0.5. (Another possiblity is to simulate from a density which is proportional to Normal(0,1) on (-b,b) and to Normal(0,sig^2) on the complement of (-b,b), where b and c and the probability weight pwt assigned to (-b,b) are parameters. NOTE: here as in the previous problem it is hard to get much of a speedup by any available method !!